油气能源发展前景（可再生能源投资首次超过油气行业）

油气能源发展前景（可再生能源投资首次超过油气行业）“此外，我们的研究和分析显示，投入可再生能源的资金首次超过上游油气(包括棕地和绿地，但不包括勘探)。如果高电价确实持续下去，并且开发商迅速将新产能投入使用，那么这种令人信服的经济效益甚至可能加速欧洲可再生能源行业的增长。”“然而，尽管在可再生能源项目开始建设之前，清除监管和其他障碍可能需要数年时间，但如果人们认为高价格将持续下去，开发商和融资方都应该努力让项目尽快开工并运行，并最大限度地承担批发价格的风险——因为一旦前期成本得到收回，即使价格回落到接近历史水平，回报也将非常有吸引力。”该分析称，考虑到上述国家8月份的平均现货价格都远高于400欧元/兆瓦时，公用事业规模的可再生能源的经济效益似乎非常可观。可再生能源相对较低的运营成本加强了他们的理由，因为即使长期电价大幅下降，回报也将保持强劲。“从历史上看，项目需要确定的现金流来获得资金，通常是通过电价和/或电力购买协议(PPAs)。尽管这些

Rystad Energy的研究发现，可再生能源投资首次超过上游油气，2022年可再生能源资本投资达到4940亿美元，而石油和天然气投资为4460亿美元。

对可再生能源的资本投资状况

Rystad Energy的一份声明称，现货电价高企，特别是在欧洲，改变了公用事业领域的风能和太阳能投资决策，因为不到一年的潜在回报期可能会引发纯粹基于项目经济的可再生资产开发竞赛。

“随着各国争相获得安全、廉价的能源，今年对可再生能源的资本投资将首次超过石油和天然气。” Rystad Energy高级副总裁Michael Sarich解释说，“随着可再生能源项目的回报时间缩短到某些情况下不到一年，对可再生能源的投资可能会进一步增加。”

他补充说，到目前为止，可再生能源项目(如太阳能光伏和风能)的回报一直不引人注目，主要依赖于补贴来让项目完成。此外，尽管近期大宗商品和供应链问题带来的成本压力(扭转了该行业多年来单位成本快速提高的趋势)本应使情况变得更棘手，但Rystad Energy的分析发现，德国、法国、意大利和英国目前的现货价格都将导致 12 个月或更短的投资回收期。

该分析称，考虑到上述国家8月份的平均现货价格都远高于400欧元/兆瓦时，公用事业规模的可再生能源的经济效益似乎非常可观。

可再生能源相对较低的运营成本加强了他们的理由，因为即使长期电价大幅下降，回报也将保持强劲。

“从历史上看，项目需要确定的现金流来获得资金，通常是通过电价和/或电力购买协议(PPAs)。尽管这些机制保护项目免受价格下跌的风险，但这确实意味着有限或完全不受现货市场高价格的影响。事实上，由于这个原因，大多数欧洲太阳能和风能项目并没有从目前的高价格中受益。”

“然而，尽管在可再生能源项目开始建设之前，清除监管和其他障碍可能需要数年时间，但如果人们认为高价格将持续下去，开发商和融资方都应该努力让项目尽快开工并运行，并最大限度地承担批发价格的风险——因为一旦前期成本得到收回，即使价格回落到接近历史水平，回报也将非常有吸引力。”

“此外，我们的研究和分析显示，投入可再生能源的资金首次超过上游油气(包括棕地和绿地，但不包括勘探)。如果高电价确实持续下去，并且开发商迅速将新产能投入使用，那么这种令人信服的经济效益甚至可能加速欧洲可再生能源行业的增长。”

Renewables Investment Outstrips Oil and Gas for First Time

Investments in renewables have outstripped upstream oil and gas for the first time research from Rystad Energy has found with capital investments in renewables reaching $494 billion in 2022 as compared to $446 billion into oil and gas for the year.

The state of capital investments into renewable energy

High spot electricity prices particularly in Europe have transformed the utility wind and solar investment narrative as potential payback periods of under a year could start a race to develop renewable assets purely based on project economics a statement from Rystad Energy said.

“Capital investments in renewables are set to outstrip oil and gas for the first time this year as countries scramble to source secure and affordable energy. Investments into renewables are likely to increase further moving forward as renewable project payback times shorten to less than a year in some cases ” explained Michael Sarich Senior Vice President Rystad Energy.

He added that up until now returns on renewable energy projects (such as solar PV and wind) have been unspectacular and primarily reliant on subsidies to get projects over the line. Furthermore although cost pressures due to recent commodity and supply chain issues should have made matters worse (due to reversing years of rapid unit cost improvements in the sector) analysis from Rystad Energy found that current spot prices in Germany France Italy and the UK would all result in paybacks of 12 months or less.

Considering the average monthly spot prices for August in the countries mentioned were all well over €400/ MWh the economics for utility scale renewables appear to be compelling the analysis said.

The relatively low operating costs of renewables strengthens their case as the returns would remain robust even if the long-term power prices were to drop significantly.

“Historically projects have required certainty of cashflows to secure funding often via feed in tariffs and/or power purchase agreements (PPAs). Although these mechanisms protect the project from downside price risk it does mean limited or no exposure to high spot market prices. In fact most European solar and wind projects are not benefitting from the current high prices for this reason."

“However while it can also take years to clear regulatory and other hurdles before construction can begin on a renewables project if one believes high prices are here to stay developers and financiers alike should be trying to get projects up and running as quickly as possible and with maximum exposure to wholesale prices – as once the up-front costs are recouped returns will be very attractive even if prices drop back close to historical levels."

“In addition our research and analysis show more capital is being pumped into renewables than upstream oil and gas (including brownfield and greenfield but excluding exploration) for the first time. If high prices are indeed here to stay and developers bring new capacity online quickly the compelling economics might even hasten Europe’s renewable sector growth ” it concluded.