马斯克未来发展趋势（未来我们将进入）

马斯克未来发展趋势（未来我们将进入）One of the most fundamental metrics to consider is the ratio of digital to biological compute that exists on earth meaning how much computation are humans capable of versus how much computation are computers capable of and what is that ratio?我们也看到了，数字计算能力爆炸式的增长。Hello everyone in Shanghai. Well I think artificial intelligence is going to play a very profound role in the future of human evolution

7月6日，2023世界人工智能大会(简称WAIC）在上海拉开帷幕。开幕式上，特斯拉创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克以视频方式“现身”并发表公开演讲。

马斯克认为，未来地球上机器人的数量将会超过人类的数量，它们具有比人类更强大的能力，会帮助人类去完成重复的、危险的、人类不愿以做的工作，使人类进入到“后稀缺”时代。但他也强调，AI是一把“双刃剑”，具有控制人类的潜力，我们要尽力确保这些消极的未来不会发生。

各位读者，你们怎么看待马斯克这番发言，AI会给人类带来哪些机遇和挑战呢？

以下是演讲精彩内容：

Hello everyone in Shanghai. Well I think artificial intelligence is going to play a very profound role in the future of human evolution and civilization in general.

上海的朋友们，大家好！我觉得，人工智能将在人类文明进化中发挥非常深远的作用。

We are seeing obviously an explosion in digital compute.

我们也看到了，数字计算能力爆炸式的增长。

One of the most fundamental metrics to consider is the ratio of digital to biological compute that exists on earth meaning how much computation are humans capable of versus how much computation are computers capable of and what is that ratio?

我们需要考虑的最重要的指标之一，是地球上的数字计算与生物计算的比率，也就是说，人类的计算能力与计算机的计算能力的比例是多少？

And every year that ratio gets greater and greater meaning the ratio of machine versus biological intelligence keeps increasing.

地球上的数字计算机与“生物计算机”的比例一直在增大。

And that means over time human intelligence will represent a smaller and smaller percentage of total thinking capacity on earth relative to machines.

这意味着随着时间推移，相对于机器，人类智力在地球上的总思维能力中所占的比例将越来越小。

This is a really profound change.

这将是一场深刻的变革。

Implications are difficult to understand in this time

目前，其所带来的影响很难预知。

But I think we are on one of the most profound time in human history.

但是可能这是人类历史上最深刻的一个时期。

The Tesla Optimus robot is still in the development stages so it's quite early but I think in the future we will have a very large number of robots.

特斯拉的Optimus人形机器人目前正在开发中，尚处早期阶段，但是在未来，我们将会有非常多的机器人。

In fact an interesting question to consider is what would be the ratio of robots to humans as time goes by.

那么，马上需要考虑的又是一个比率的问题，也就是机器人和人类的比例。

And it seems like it may at some point exceed a one-to-one ratio meaning more robots than humans and potentially much greater.

现在看来，下一阶段二者的比例可能会超过1 : 1，也就是说，地球上机器人的数量将会超过人类的数量。

So this is certainly the way things appear to be trending.

这一趋势已经十分明显。

This has both positive and negative implications because the positive implications are that we'll be in an age of abundance where there's whatever goods and services somebody wants that they can simply have.

积极的影响就是，我们将会进入到一个“后稀缺”时代，不会再有短缺了，那么这个时代将会是一个富足的时代，只要你想要的，立刻就能够获得。

Because the productivity of a future world with a very large number of robots would be incredibly high compared to the productivity of Earth today.

因为未来世界里面，在有非常多机器人的情况下，生产效率将会比人类为主导的生产效率高很多，这是非常大的变化。

So it's a very profound change and something I think we need to be careful about to make sure that it is something that benefits humanity.

这将是具有深远意义的变化，当然，我们需要非常谨慎地对待，确保机器人对人类是有益的。

But the trends are over time independent of Tesla that we're headed to a world where there are more robots than humans.

但我相信随着时间推移，即使没有特斯拉，我们也将进入一个机器人超过人类的时代。

Now Optimus is intended to be helpful in human-like tasks.

特斯拉的Optimus人形机器人正在开发中。其目标是帮助人们完成琐碎的工作。

It is not meant to have great intelligence but it is meant to have sufficient intelligence to do boring repetitive or dangerous tasks that humans would prefer not to do.

它不需要很高的智能水平，但是有足够的能力来做一些无聊的、重复的而且危险的、人类不愿意做的工作

So the goal of Optimus like I said is to do the kind of jobs that people would prefer not to do.

所以特斯拉的Optimus人形机器人的目标是帮助人们完成琐碎的工作。

I think it will be quite useful in that regard.

我认为在这方面它将发挥巨大作用。

I think it's gonna be significant.

我相信，特斯拉将在这一进程中扮演重要的角色。

Artificial general intelligence is a computer intelligence that is smarter than all humans at everything.

通用人工智能是一种计算机智能，它能比所有人类都聪明。

So this is not something that Tesla's working on but other companies are.

这并非特斯拉目前专攻的领域，有其他公司正在研究。

And I think that is something we should be concerned about.

但我认为，这也是我们应该关注的领域。

I think it's important that there be some sort of regulatory oversight to ensure that very deep intelligence tens of thousands of high-performance computers potentially hundreds of thousands of high-performance computers at some point potentially millions of the most advanced computers all working together in a data center to produce a single combined superintelligence.

尤其是面对深度人工智能的上万台，甚至数十万、数百万台最先进的计算机，我们需要有监管措施来确保计算机都可以协助有序工作以成就一个单一的综合“超级智能”。

And obviously if you've got a superintelligence of immense capability far more capable than a human that is a concern that is a risk.

未来，“超级智能”将比人类更有能力，也同时存在着风险。

Now it could be that there's a very positive future.

现在，它可能是一个非常积极的将来。

But there's some chance of a negative future.

也有可能是一个消极的未来。

And we should do everything possible to ensure that the negative future does not come to pass and that the positive one does.

我们应该尽一切可能，确保担忧的事情不会发生，迎接积极未来的到来。

Well I think there's a tremendous number of very smart very talented people in China. I've always been a tremendous admirer of the sheer amount of talent and drive that exists in China.

中国有非常多智慧的人，我一直非常钦佩中国人民的智慧和干劲。

So I think really China's gonna be great at anything it puts its mind to.

我认为，中国在任何它想做的事情上都会完成得十分出色。

So that includes many different sectors of the economy but also artificial intelligence.

这在许多领域都有体现，不论是经济还是人工智能领域。

So I think China will have very strong AI capability is my prediction.

我相信，未来中国将拥有非常强大的人工智能能力。