欧洲基建投资金额（德国低投资造成基础设施脆弱不堪）

欧洲基建投资金额（德国低投资造成基础设施脆弱不堪）Schleswig-Holstein is typical. An urgent expansion of the coastal motorway is delayed. The railway across the Danish border had to be closed in April because of a rotting bridge. At the eastern entrance to the Kiel Canal (the world’s busiest artificial waterway connecting the Baltic and North seas) only one of the four Wilhelmine locks is in operation leaving freighters queuing to get through.

A VERDANT suburb in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein Pinneberg epitomises the Germany of record consumer confidence booming exports and a bulging federal budget surplus. Here commuters stream off trains from Hamburg (local unemployment is 4.9%) climb into big cars and zip home to neat houses with solar panels on the roof.

德国消费者信心达到创记录状况、出口繁盛以及联邦预算大幅盈余等情况在德国北部州石勒苏益格—荷尔施泰因的近郊，绿色葱葱葱的平讷贝格得到了全面展现。这里有大量的人从汉堡乘坐火车而来（当地的失业率为4.9%），转坐大巴车或是到中转站前往屋顶装有太阳能的公寓。

But visit the Theodor Heuss secondary school and you see another Germany. Duct tape attaches wallboard partitions to bare concrete ceilings studded with loose wires. Pipes weeds and bits of tile stick out of the ground. Noisy emergency roof repairs had to be carried out during exams. “We went to the state government three years ago but nothing has happened ” complains Ulrike Graefen of the Pinneberg School Alliance a parents’ group.

不过，站在特奥多尔·豪斯小学，你会看到德国的另一面。隔板用密封胶带粘到光秃秃的水泥顶上，而电线到处都是。在地上，乱露着水管、杂草以及一些瓷砖。在学生考试的时候，修屋顶时传来的吵闹声此起彼伏。“我们三年前就去州政府反映情况，不过没有任何结果，”家长团体平讷贝格学校联盟的乌尔里克·格雷芬（Ulrike Graefen）投诉道。

This is the underside of Germany’s economic miracle: a country with a budget surplus of €23.7bn ($26.7bn) or 0.8% of GDP has the lowest infrastructure investment rate of any big rich economy. The IMF complains that such under-spending contributes to the country’s excessive savings helping to unbalance global trade. And it hurts Germany too.

这是德国经济奇迹的“阴暗面”：德国预算盈余有237亿欧元，占GDP的0.8%，可却是发达国家基础设施投资率最低的。这种在国家超储蓄低投资的情况遭到国际货币基金组织（IMF）的不满，因为这种状况会不利于国际贸易平衡。同时，这对德国也不利。

In the 1990s Germany invested massively to incorporate the formerly communist East. Then came two shocks both to do with rules. In 2001 with the economy ailing the government broke the new euro zone’s deficit limits and had to cut spending. Ten years later as the euro crisis again drove deficits up Berlin imposed a “debt brake” on federal and state governments. Politicians found it easier to cut long-term outlays than current spending. The net value of state assets fell between 2002-07 and again since 2012 (see chart).

在1990年代，德国对前东德地区有大量的投入，以实现经济整合。之后出现了两次投资紧缩，以应对法律的要求。在2001年，由于经济状况不佳，德国政府突破了新欧元区预算赤字的上限， 不得不减少财政支出。10年之后，欧元区的金融危机再一次造成预算赤字，因此，德国政府对联邦以及地方州政府的预算实施“债务刹车”。政府人物纷纷发现消减长期的预算投入会比当下的支出更为容易。在2002年至2007年期间以及2012年以来，德国各州资产的净值都下滑。

Schleswig-Holstein is typical. An urgent expansion of the coastal motorway is delayed. The railway across the Danish border had to be closed in April because of a rotting bridge. At the eastern entrance to the Kiel Canal (the world’s busiest artificial waterway connecting the Baltic and North seas) only one of the four Wilhelmine locks is in operation leaving freighters queuing to get through. Last year broken lock gates closed it down altogether forcing ships to take the 450km (280-mile) route around Denmark. Comprehensive repairs will begin in 2025.

石勒苏益格—荷尔施泰因的情况就是典型。该市一度迫切需要扩建沿海的高速公路推迟建设。从丹麦延伸过来的铁路由于一座桥梁质量不佳而在四月关闭。在基尔运河——一条连接波罗地海和北海，全球最为繁忙的人工运河——的东部入口，四条威廉闸口只有一条开放运营，货运船只只能排队通行。去年，由于闸口门坏了，整个运河彻底关闭不通航，迫使所有船只沿着丹麦的450公里航道绕道。对整个闸口的全面修缮要在2025年开始。

Such tales of leaky classrooms and potholed roads as well as patchy internet are the flip side of today’s wealthy booming Germany. In the World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness survey in 2010-11 Germany ranked fifth in the world for both road and railway quality and 12th for internet bandwidth. The latest survey ranks it 16th 11th and 29th respectively.

诸如教室屋顶修缮以及互联网提速等问题都只是当前富裕繁荣的德国的另一面。全球经济论坛2010-2011年的全球竞争力调查中，德国在全球道路和铁路质量排行中名列第五，在互联网宽带排行中名列第十二。最新的调查中，上述三项的排行榜分别是第十六、第十一以及第二十九。

Marcel Fratzscher of the German Institute for Economic Research believes that low public investment weighs on the (also low) private investment rate. Business lobbies like the Northern Business Union in Schleswig-Holstein clamour for something to be done. The government is increasing infrastructure spending to €14bn in 2017 up 10% on last year. But local governments reckon they need over €135bn just to handle the current backlog.

德国经济研究所的马塞尔·弗拉茨舍（Marcel Fratzscher）认为，公共投资与(同样比较低)的民间投资相比，占比很低。企业社团（如苏益格的北部商业团体）大声呼吁要采取措施。德国政府在加大基础设施的投入，在2017年将达到140亿欧元，较2016年同比增加10%。不过，地方政府承认目前有1350亿欧元的资金缺口。

In the campaign for the national election in September politicians will clash over whether to invest the federal budget surplus or to return it in tax cuts. The liberal Free Democratic Party and many in Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats prefer the latter. But Sebastian Dullien an economist at Berlin’s University of Applied Sciences argues that past tax relief has not fuelled higher investment; rather it mostly sits in bank accounts. The Social Democrats and Greens share that analysis. Mrs Merkel in contrast to others in her party seems to prefer a mix of tax cuts and investment.

在今年九月大选的竞争活动中，政治人物将在是用联邦预算盈余用于减税还是返还给民众的问题上争论不休。属于自由阵营的自由民主党（Free Democratic Party）以及属于安吉拉·默克尔的基督教民主党阵营中的不少人倾向于后者。不过，柏林应用科学大学的经济学者塞巴斯蒂安·dullien认为，以往的减税并没有促进投资的增加；相反，更多地是躺在银行账户里。社会民主党和绿党则认同这种分析。默克尔的观点与自己的党派相反，更为倾向于减税和投资并举的政策。

Mr Fratzscher points to a longer-term solution: requiring Berlin to invest at least as much in state assets as the value by which they are depreciating and to put aside funds in good economic times to ensure a smooth flow of investment in bad ones. If Germany’s obedience to rules got it into its low-investment funk perhaps new rules can get it out.

弗拉茨舍提出了一个长期解决方法：德国政府向各地方州提供财政补助，至少弥补其在贬值资产数额，同时在经济较好的时期提留一些资金以用于经济不佳的时期。如果德国因遵照欧盟法规而陷入低投资糟糕困境，或者就需要有新的经济法规来将之拉出来。

编辑：翻吧君

英文来源：经济学人

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