快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）

逗爷 2023-03-18 15:11:26 643

快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）(1) Form an expert group. Determine experts according to site selection factors and principles. The number of experts can be determined according to the size and complexity of the site selection generally no more than 20.(1)组成专家小组。按照选址因素和原则，确定专家。专家人数的多少，可根据选址规模的大小和复杂程度而定，一般不超过20人。德尔菲法是采用匿名函询的方法，通过一系列简明的调查征询表向专家进行调查，并通过有控制的反馈，取得尽可能一致的意见，对未来进行预测。这种方法比较简单、节省费用，能把各方面的理论和实践专家对同一问题的意见集中起来，适用于资料少、未知因素多的

快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）(1)

快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）(2)

分享兴趣，传播快乐，增长见闻，留下美好！亲爱的您，这里是LearningYard新学苑。今天小编为大家带来在分拨中心选址过程中常使用的一种定性方法——德尔菲法。

Share interests spread happiness increase knowledge and leave a beautiful future! Dear you this is learningyard new school. Today the editor brings you a qualitative method - Delphi method which is often used in the process of location selection of distribution centers.

快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）(3)

1)德尔菲法

德尔菲法是采用匿名函询的方法，通过一系列简明的调查征询表向专家进行调查，并通过有控制的反馈，取得尽可能一致的意见，对未来进行预测。这种方法比较简单、节省费用，能把各方面的理论和实践专家对同一问题的意见集中起来，适用于资料少、未知因素多的问题。德尔菲法的具体步骤如下。

1) Delphi method

Delphi method adopts the method of anonymous correspondence to investigate experts through a series of concise inquiry forms and through controlled feedback obtain as much consensus as possible and predict the future. This method is relatively simple and cost-effective. It can gather the opinions of various theoretical and practical experts on the same problem and is suitable for problems with less data and more unknown factors. The specific steps of Delphi method are as follows.

快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）(4)

(1)组成专家小组。按照选址因素和原则，确定专家。专家人数的多少，可根据选址规模的大小和复杂程度而定，一般不超过20人。

(1) Form an expert group. Determine experts according to site selection factors and principles. The number of experts can be determined according to the size and complexity of the site selection generally no more than 20.

(2)向所有专家提出所要选址的问题和有关要求，并附上有关这个问题的所有背景材料，同时请专家提出还需要什么材料。然后，由专家进行书面答复。

(2) Put forward the problem and relevant requirements of the site selection to all experts attach all background materials related to this problem and ask experts to put forward what other materials are needed. Then the expert will give a written reply.

(3)各个专家根据他们所收到的材料，提出自己的选址意见，并说明自己是怎样利用这些材料并提出选址的。

(3) According to the materials they received experts put forward their own site selection opinions and explained how they used these materials and proposed site selection.

快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）(5)

(4)将各位专家第一次的判断意见汇总，列成图表，进行对比，再分发给各位专家，让专家比较自己和他人的不同意见，修改自己的意见和判断。也可以把各位专家的意见加以整理，或请其他专家加以评论，然后把这些意见再分送给各位专家，以便他们参考后修改自己的意见。

(4) Summarize the first judgment opinions of experts list them in a chart compare them and then distribute them to experts so that experts can compare their different opinions with others and modify their opinions and judgments. You can also sort out the opinions of experts or invite other experts to comment and then distribute these opinions to experts so that they can revise their opinions after reference.

5)将所有专家的修改意见进行收集和汇总，再次分发给各位专家，以便进行第二次修改。逐轮收集意见并为专家反馈信息是德尔菲法的主要环节。收集意见和信息反馈一般要经过三四轮。在向专家进行反馈的时候，只给出各种意见，并不说明发表各种意见的专家的具体姓名。这一过程重复进行，直到每一个专家不再改变自己的意见。最后，对专家的意见进行综合处理。

5) Collect and summarize the modification opinions of all experts and distribute them to all experts again for the second modification. Collecting opinions round by round and giving feedback to experts is the main link of Delphi method. Generally it takes three or four rounds to collect opinions and information feedback. When giving feedback to experts only various opinions are given and the specific names of experts who express various opinions are not stated. This process is repeated until each expert no longer changes his opinion. Finally the opinions of experts are comprehensively handled.

快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）(6)

德尔菲法与常见的召集专家开会，通过集体讨论得出一致预测意见的专家会议法既有联系又有区别。德尔菲法能发挥专家会议法的优点:①能充分发挥各位专家的作用，集思广益，准确性高;②能把各位专家意见的分歧表达出来，取各家之长，避各家之短。

Delphi method is both related and different from the common expert meeting method of convening expert meetings and obtaining consensus predictions through collective discussion. Delphi method can give full play to the advantages of expert meeting method: ① it can give full play to the role of experts brainstorm and have high accuracy; ② Be able to express the differences of experts' opinions take their strengths and avoid their weaknesses.

快递路由规划算法（复杂性及规划运营管理）(7)