ted成功的秘诀是设定正确的目标（TED塑造你世界观的三种偏见）
ted成功的秘诀是设定正确的目标（TED塑造你世界观的三种偏见）演讲中英文剧本3. 认知失调：新信息与现有信念相矛盾（无法理解现有经验外的事物）那么如何走出思维上的认知框架、扩大我们的认知半径呢？Shepherd博士也给出了三个方法：列出自己的偏见（take an inventory of your own biases）、评估信息来源(evaluate your sources)、表达出来(speak out)。
J. Marshall Shepherd
美国佐治亚大学教授、气象学家J. Marshall Shepherd博士在TED演讲中，以自己的亲身经历为例，说明不相信“全球变暖”的人和不相信重力存在的人，本质上是一样的——他们都存在着对科学的认知偏差，具体可分为以下三种：
1. 确认偏误：只会寻找那些能够支持自己观点的证据；
2. 达克效应：高估自己的水平；
3. 认知失调：新信息与现有信念相矛盾（无法理解现有经验外的事物）
那么如何走出思维上的认知框架、扩大我们的认知半径呢？
Shepherd博士也给出了三个方法：列出自己的偏见（take an inventory of your own biases）、评估信息来源(evaluate your sources)、表达出来(speak out)。
演讲中英文剧本
I'm a meteorologist by degree
我是个气象学家，
I have a bachelor's master's and PhD in physical meteorology
我拥有物理气象学学士、硕士和博士学位，
so I'm a meteorologist card carrying.
所以我是个气象学家，带着卡片。
And so with that comes four questions always.
因此，随之而来的是四个问题。
This is one prediction I will always get right.
这是一个我将永远正确的预测。
(Laughter) （笑声）
And those questions are
这些问题是，
"Marshall what channel are you on?"
"马歇尔，你在哪个频道？"
(Laughter)
（笑声）
"Dr. Shepherd what's the weather going to be tomorrow?"
"谢泼德医生 明天天气怎么样?"
(Laughter)
（笑声）
And oh I love this one:
哦，我喜欢这个：
"My daughter is getting married next September it's an outdoor wedding.
"我女儿明年九月就要结婚了，这是一场户外婚礼。"
Is it going to rain?"
会下雨吗？"
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Not kidding I get those and I don't know the answer to that
不是开玩笑，我知道，我也不知道答案，
the science isn't there.
科学不在那里。
But the one I get a lot these days is
但最近我得到的最多的是，
"Dr. Shepherd do you believe in climate change?"
"谢泼德博士，你相信气候变化吗？"
"Do you believe in global warming?"
"你相信全球变暖吗？"
Now I have to gather myself every time I get that question.
现在，每次我听到这个问题，我都要聚一聚。
Because it's an ill-posed question --
因为这是一个错误的问题
science isn't a belief system.
科学不是信仰体系。
My son he's 10 -- he believes in the tooth fairy.
我儿子，他10岁了-他相信牙仙子。
And he needs to get over that because I'm losing dollars fast.
他需要克服这些，因为我损失了很多钱，很快。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
But he believes in the tooth fairy.
但他相信牙仙子。
But consider this.
但想想这个。
Bank of America building there in Atlanta.
美国银行大厦，在亚特兰大。
You never hear anyone say
你没听人说过，
"Do you believe if you go to the top of that building
"你相信吗，如果你爬到那幢楼的顶端
and throw a ball off it's going to fall?"
把球扔出去，它会掉下来吗？"
You never hear that because gravity is a thing.
你从来没听过，因为重力是一回事。
So why don't we hear the question
所以我们为什么不听听这个问题，
"Do you believe in gravity?"
"你相信地心引力吗？"
But of course we hear the question
但当然，我们听到了问题，
"Do you believe in global warming?"
"你相信全球变暖吗？"
Well consider these facts.
好吧，考虑一下这些事实。
The American Association for the Advancement of Science AAAS
美国科学促进协会，AAAS，
one of the leading organizations in science
科学领域的主要组织之一，
queried scientists and the public on different science topics.
就不同的科学课题向科学家和公众提问。
Here are some of them:
以下是其中一些：
genetically modified food animal research human evolution.
转基因食品、动物研究、人类进化。
And look at what the scientists say about those
看看科学家们是怎么说的，
the people that actually study those topics in red
研究这些主题的人，用红色，
versus the gray what the public thinks.
与灰色的对比，公众怎么想的。
How did we get there?
我们是怎么到那里的？
How did we get there?
我们是怎么到那里的？
That scientists and the public are so far apart on these science issues.
科学家和公众在这些科学问题上的分歧如此之大。
Well I'll come a little bit closer to home for me
好吧，我会为了我离家更近一点，
climate change.
气候变化。
Eighty-seven percent of scientists
87%的科学家
believe that humans are contributing to climate change.
相信人类正在对气候变化做出贡献。
But only 50 percent of the public?
但只有50%的公众？
How did we get there?
我们是怎么到那里的？
So it begs the question
所以它回避了这个问题，
what shapes perceptions about science?
是什么塑造了人们对科学的看法？
It's an interesting question
是个有趣的问题
and one that I've been thinking about quite a bit.
其中一个我已经想了很久了。
I think that one thing that shapes perceptions in the public about science
我认为影响公众认知的一个因素，关于科学，
is belief systems and biases.
是信仰系统和偏见。
Belief systems and biases.
信仰系统和偏见。
Go with me for a moment.
和我一起去一会儿。
Because I want to talk about three elements of that:
因为我想谈谈其中的三个要素：
confirmation bias Dunning-Kruger effect
确认偏差，Dunning-Kruger效应
and cognitive dissonance.
以及认知失调。
Now these sound like big fancy academic terms and they are.
现在，这些听起来像大，花哨，学术术语，他们是。
But when I describe them you're going to be like "Oh!
但当我描述他们的时候，你会说，"哦！
I recognize that; I even know somebody that does that."
我认识到了这一点； 我甚至认识这样的人。"
Confirmation bias.
确认偏差。
Finding evidence that supports what we already believe.
找到支持我们已经相信的证据。
Now we're probably all a little bit guilty of that at times.
现在，我们可能都有一点内疚的时候。
Take a look at this.
你看看这个。
I'm on Twitter.
我在推特上。
And often when it snows
当下雪的时候，
I'll get this tweet back to me.
我要把这条推文还给我。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
"Hey Dr. Shepherd I have 20 inches of global warming in my yard
"嘿，谢泼德博士，我院子里有20英寸的全球变暖，
what are you guys talking about climate change?"
你们在说什么，气候变化？"
I get that tweet a lot actually.
实际上，我经常收到这条微博。
It's a cute tweet it makes me chuckle as well.
这是一个可爱的推特，它也让我发笑。
But it's oh so fundamentally scientifically flawed.
但它在科学上是有根本缺陷的。
Because it illustrates
因为它说明
that the person tweeting doesn't understand
在推特上发信息的人不明白
the difference between weather and climate.
天气和气候之间的差别。
I often say weather is your mood
我常说，天气是你的心情
and climate is your personality.
气候是你的个性。
Think about that.
好好想想。
Weather is your mood climate is your personality.
天气是你的心情，气候是你的个性。
Your mood today doesn't necessarily tell me anything about your personality
你今天的心情不一定能告诉我你的个性，
nor does a cold day tell me anything about climate change
寒冷的一天也没有告诉我任何有关气候变化的事情，
or a hot day for that matter.
或者是炎热的一天。
Dunning-Kruger.
邓宁-克鲁格。
Two scholars from Cornell came up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
康奈尔大学的两位学者提出了Dunning-Kruger效应。
If you go look up the peer-reviewed paper for this
如果你去查一下同行评议过的论文，
you will see all kinds of fancy terminology:
你会看到各种花哨的术语：
it's an illusory superiority complex thinking we know things.
这是一种虚幻的优越感，以为我们知道些什么。
In other words people think they know more than they do.
换句话说，人们认为他们知道的比他们知道的多。
Or they underestimate what they don't know.
或者他们低估了他们不知道的东西。
And then there's cognitive dissonance.
然后，就会出现认知失调。
Cognitive dissonance is interesting.
认知失调很有趣。
We just recently had Groundhog Day right?
我们刚过了土拨鼠节，对吧？
Now there's no better definition of cognitive dissonance
现在，对于认知失调没有更好的定义了
than intelligent people asking me if a rodent's forecast is accurate.
总比聪明的人问我老鼠的预测是否准确要好。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
But I get that all of the time.
但我一直都明白。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
But I also hear about the Farmer's Almanac.
但我也听说过农夫年鉴。
We grew up on the Farmer's Almanac people are familiar with it.
我们是在农民年鉴上长大的，大家都很熟悉。
The problem is it's only about 37 percent accurate
问题是，只有37%是准确的，
according to studies at Penn State University.
根据宾州州立大学的研究。
But we're in an era of science
但我们正处在一个科学的时代
where we actually can forecast the weather.
我们可以预报天气的地方。
And believe it or not and I know some of you are like "Yeah right "
不管你信不信，我知道你们中的一些人会说，"是的，没错，"
we're about 90 percent accurate or more with weather forecast.
我们对天气预报的准确率约为90%，甚至更高。
You just tend to remember the occasional miss you do.
你只会记得偶尔的错过，你会记得的。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
So confirmation bias Dunning-Kruger and cognitive dissonance.
证实偏倚、Dunning-Kruger和认知不一致。
I think those shape biases and perceptions that people have about science.
我认为这些形成了人们对科学的偏见和看法。
But then there's literacy and misinformation
但后来，又出现了识字和误传
that keep us boxed in as well.
这也让我们陷入了困境。
During the hurricane season of 2017
在2017年的飓风季节，
media outlets had to actually assign reporters
媒体必须指派记者
to dismiss fake information about the weather forecast.
否认有关天气预报的虚假信息。
That's the era that we're in.
这就是我们所处的时代。
I deal with this all the time in social media.
我一直在社交媒体上处理这件事。
Someone will tweet a forecast --
有人会在推特上预测-
that's a forecast for Hurricane Irma but here's the problem:
这是对艾玛飓风的预测，但问题是：
it didn't come from the Hurricane Center.
不是来自飓风中心。
But people were tweeting and sharing this; it went viral.
但人们在推特上分享这些信息；就像病毒一样。
It didn't come from the National Hurricane Center at all.
它根本不是来自国家飓风中心。
So I spent 12 years of my career at NASA
所以我在NASA工作了12年
before coming to the University of Georgia
在来到乔治亚大学之前，
and I chair their Earth Science Advisory Committee
我是他们地球科学咨询委员会的主席，
I was just up there last week in DC.
我上周刚去了华盛顿。
And I saw some really interesting things.
我看到了一些非常有趣的东西。
Here's a NASA model and science data from satellite
这是NASA的模型和卫星的科学数据
showing the 2017 hurricane season.
显示2017年飓风季节。
You see Hurricane Harvey there?
你看到哈维飓风了吗？
Look at all the dust coming off of Africa.
看看非洲所有的尘土。
Look at the wildfires up in northwest US and in western Canada.
看看美国西北部和加拿大西部的野火。
There comes Hurricane Irma.
艾玛飓风来了。
This is fascinating to me.
对我来说这很吸引人。
But admitTEDly I'm a weather geek.
但无可否认，我是个气象学家。
But more importantly it illustrates that we have the technology
但更重要的是，这说明我们拥有
to not only observe the weather and climate system
不仅要观察天气和气候系统，
but predict it.
但是预测一下。
There's scientific understanding
有科学的理解，
so there's no need for some of those perceptions and biases
所以这些观念和偏见是没有必要的
that we've been talking about.
我们一直在谈论的。
We have knowledge.
我们有知识。
But think about this ...
但想想这个..
This is Houston Texas after Hurricane Harvey.
这是德克萨斯州休斯顿，在哈维飓风之后。
Now I write a contribution for "Forbes" magazine periodically
现在，我定期为《福布斯》杂志撰稿，
and I wrote an article a week before Hurricane Harvey made landfall saying
我在飓风哈维登陆前一周写了一篇文章，说，
"There's probably going to be 40 to 50 inches of rainfall."
"可能会有40到50英寸的降雨量。"
I wrote that a week before it happened.
我是在事情发生前一周写的。
But yet when you talk to people in Houston
但当你和休斯顿的人说话的时候，
people are saying "We had no idea it was going to be this bad."
人们说，"我们不知道会有这么糟糕的事情发生。"
I'm just...
我只是..
(Sigh)
（叹气）
(Laughter)
（笑声）
A week before.
一周前。
But --
但是-
I know it's amusing but the reality is
我知道，这很有趣，但现实是，
we all struggle with perceiving something outside of our experience level.
我们都在努力感知超出我们经验水平的东西。
People in Houston get rain all of the time
休斯顿的人一直在下雨，
they flood all of the time.
它们无时无刻不在泛滥。
But they've never experienced that.
但他们从未经历过。
Houston gets about 34 inches of rainfall for the entire year.
休斯顿全年降雨量约为34英寸。
They got 50 inches in three days.
他们三天内就长了50英寸。
That's an anomaly event that's outside of the normal.
这是个不正常的事件，超出了正常范围。
So belief systems and biases literacy and misinformation.
所以信念系统和偏见，识字和错误信息。
How do we step out of the boxes that are cornering our perceptions?
我们如何走出那些扭曲我们观念的盒子？
Well we don't even have to go to Houston we can come very close to home.
我们甚至不用去休斯顿，我们可以离家很近。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Remember "Snowpocalypse?"
还记得"雪天"吗？
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Snowmageddon?
斯诺马吉顿？
Snowzilla?
斯诺齐拉？
Whatever you want to call it.
不管你叫它什么。
All two inches of it.
整整两英寸。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Two inches of snow shut the city of Atlanta down.
两英寸厚的雪把亚特兰大城封住了。
(Laughter)
（笑声）
But the reality is we were in a winter storm watch
但事实是，我们在看一场冬季风暴，
we went to a winter weather advisory
我们去看了冬季天气预报，
and a lot of people perceived that as being a downgrade
很多人认为这是一种降级，
"Oh it's not going to be as bad."
"哦，不会那么糟的。"
When in fact the perception was that it was not going to be as bad
当事实上，人们认为事情不会那么糟的时候，
but it was actually an upgrade.
但实际上是升级了。
Things were getting worse as the models were coming in.
当模特们走进来的时候，情况变得更糟了。
So that's an example of how we get boxed in by our perceptions.
这就是我们如何被自己的认知束缚的一个例子。
So the question becomes
所以，问题变成，
how do we expand our radius?
我们如何扩大我们的半径？
The area of a circle is "pi r squared".
圆的面积是"π r平方"。
We increase the radius we increase the area.
我们扩大半径，扩大面积。
How do we expand our radius of understanding about science?
我们如何扩大对科学的理解范围？
Here are my thoughts.
这是我的想法。
You take inventory of your own biases.
你审视自己的偏见。
And I'm challenging you all to do that.
我要挑战你们所有人去做这件事。
Take an inventory of your own biases.
整理一下你自己的偏见。
Where do they come from?
他们是从哪里来的？
Your upbringing your political perspective your faith --
你的成长，你的政治观点，你的信仰-
what shapes your own biases?
是什么塑造了你自己的偏见？
Then evaluate your sources --
然后，评估你的消息来源-
where do you get your information on science?
你从哪里得到有关科学的信息？
What do you read what do you listen to
你读了什么，听了什么，
to consume your information on science?
去消费你的科学信息？
And then it's important to speak out.
然后，说出来是很重要的。
Talk about how you evaluated your biases and evaluated your sources.
谈谈你如何评估你的偏见和评估你的来源。
I want you to listen to this little 40-second clip
我要你听这个40秒的小片段
from one of the top TV meteorologists in the US Greg Fishel
来自美国最顶尖的电视气象学家之一，Greg Fishel，
in the Raleigh Durham area.
在罗利，达勒姆地区。
He's revered in that region.
他在那个地区很受尊敬。
But he was a climate skeptic.
但他对气候持怀疑态度。
But listen to what he says about speaking out.
但听听他是怎么说出来的。
Greg Fishel: The mistake I was making
格雷格·菲舍尔：我犯的错误
and didn't realize until very recently
直到最近才意识到，
was that I was only looking for information
我只是在寻找信息
to support what I already thought
为了支持我的想法，
and was not interested in listening to anything contrary.
对听任何相反的东西不感兴趣。
And so I woke up one morning
所以有一天早上我醒来，
and there was this question in my mind
我脑子里有个问题，
"Greg are you engaging in confirmation bias?
"格雷格，你是在确认偏见吗？"
Are you only looking for information to support what you already think?"
你只是在寻找能支持你已有想法的信息吗？"
And if I was honest with myself and I tried to be
如果我对自己诚实，而且我试着这么做，
I admitted that was going on.
我承认这是真的。
And so the more I talked to scientists
所以我和科学家们谈得越多
and read peer-reviewed literature
阅读同行评议的文献
and tried to conduct myself the way I'd been taught to conduct myself
我试着按照别人教我的方式来对待自己
at Penn State when I was a student
在宾州大学当我还是个学生的时候，
it became very difficult for me to make the argument
我很难跟你争论
that we weren't at least having some effect.
我们至少没有什么效果。
Maybe there was still a doubt as to how much
可能还有多少是值得怀疑的，
but to say "nothing" was not a responsible thing for me to do
但说"没什么"对我来说不是一件负责任的事
as a scientist or a person.
作为一个科学家或一个人。
JMS: Greg Fishel just talked about expanding his radius
记者：Greg Fishel刚刚说要扩大他的半径
of understanding of science.
对科学的理解。
And when we expand our radius
当我们扩大半径的时候，
it's not about making a better future
不是为了创造一个更美好的未来，
but it's about preserving life as we know it.
但这是为了保护我们所知道的生命。
So as we think about expanding our own radius in understanding science
所以当我们考虑扩大我们理解科学的范围时，
it's critical for Athens Georgia for Atlanta Georgia
对佐治亚州的雅典，对佐治亚州的亚特兰大，
for the state of Georgia and for the world.
为了佐治亚州，也为了全世界。
So expand your radius.
扩大你的半径。
Thank you.
谢谢你。
(Applause)
（掌声）
Remark
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