世界各国儿童出生率：世界首个零出生率国家

世界各国儿童出生率：世界首个零出生率国家S Korea campaign fails to halt falling birth rate原文阅读世界多国不仅仅是面临低生育率的问题，据国家统计局和民政部数据显示，从全国范围来看，2018年结婚率仅为7.2‰，这个数字创下了近10年来新低。从不同省份的差异来看，经济越发达地区的结婚率越低，2018年全国结婚率最低的上海只有4.4‰，浙江5.9‰为倒数第二，广东、北京、天津等地的结婚率也偏低。人们的观念越来越多元化，每个人都有自己所追求的生活。从整个社会的视角来看，结婚、生育不仅仅是个人的事，还和社会发展有着密不可分的关系。所以在对待年轻人的结婚问题上，一方面，社会应当尊重多元化、个性化的个人选择，予以年轻人更多选择的空间，对推迟结婚、事实婚姻、不结婚等给予更多宽容。但另一方面，家庭、社会和国家也应当加以引导，帮助年轻人树立正确的婚姻观，建立健康的亲密关系。同时也应该在教育、年轻人发

8月28日，韩国统计厅发布《2018年出生统计(确定版)》，合计生育率仅为0.98，即平均一名女子终生生产不到1名子女，成世界唯一出生率进入"零时代"的国家。许多韩国女性表示生孩子以后经济压力增加，在职场得不到平等待遇。

不仅仅是韩国，在发达国家当中，德国和日本都已经进入了人口数量下降、老龄化程度逐年严重的阶段，其他西方国家要么紧跟其后，要么也只是苟延残喘而已，他们难道没有尝试进行生育补贴吗？这不是补贴能解决的问题。

在过去的时代，绝大多数人们被限制在土地上，他们必须要维持土地上的劳动力，所以必须多生育，多一个人就多一份力；然而现在的时代不一样了，绝大多数人已经脱离了土地，而这些人又受过了严格的教育，对他们来说，生育既没有必要，更加影响他们的生活质量——而且甚至可能对孩子来说都很残酷。所以，在工业化时代以后，生育投资与收益严重不成正比，这就是客观而严峻的现实 。

年轻人为什么不愿意生娃？ 有专家分析，原因归结为两点： “全面两孩”政策的边际效应递减，和较高的育儿成本导致的生育意愿低迷。山东大学哲学与社会发展学院社会学系教授宋全成表示，当前，不仅是山东，从全国来看，社会人口结构已迎来新的转折点。保障生育补贴、加强女性生育保护......必须尽快全面放开生育政策，提升人的生育自主性，让人回归自然生育状态。

世界多国不仅仅是面临低生育率的问题，据国家统计局和民政部数据显示，从全国范围来看，2018年结婚率仅为7.2‰，这个数字创下了近10年来新低。从不同省份的差异来看，经济越发达地区的结婚率越低，2018年全国结婚率最低的上海只有4.4‰，浙江5.9‰为倒数第二，广东、北京、天津等地的结婚率也偏低。

人们的观念越来越多元化，每个人都有自己所追求的生活。

从整个社会的视角来看，结婚、生育不仅仅是个人的事，还和社会发展有着密不可分的关系。所以在对待年轻人的结婚问题上，一方面，社会应当尊重多元化、个性化的个人选择，予以年轻人更多选择的空间，对推迟结婚、事实婚姻、不结婚等给予更多宽容。但另一方面，家庭、社会和国家也应当加以引导，帮助年轻人树立正确的婚姻观，建立健康的亲密关系。同时也应该在教育、年轻人发展等各个方面多加考虑，为年轻人创造一个更好的婚育条件。

原文阅读

S Korea campaign fails to halt falling birth rate

摘要：South Korea may be known for its high levels of productivity when it comes to manufacturing televisions phones and ships but there is one crucial area in which the country is struggling to keep upwithitscompetitors—babies.

South Korea’s birth rate already the lowest in the developed world has fallen to a new low due to factors such as the high cost of private education despite various government initiatives to prop it up increasing alarm about the country’s bleak demographic outlook.

The country’s fertility rate — the number of expected babies per woman— fell to 0.98 in 2018 according to the latest government data released yester-day. It was already the lowest at 1.05 in 2017 amongmembers of the OECD— far lower than Israel which was the highest in the organisation with 3.11 expected babies in 2017 the US at 1.77 and Japan’s 1.43. The replacement level — the total fertility rate for developed countries needed to keep the population constant—is 2.1 percent.

Thanks to its falling birth rate Asia’s fourth-largest economy is expected to grow older more quickly over the next four decades than any other country including Japan and China despite the latter’s former one-child policy.

“This is really bad news for our long-term growth outlook. The lower birth rate shows how pessimistic people are about our future economy ” said Park Chong-hoon an economist at Standard Chartered. “There is no short-term fix for this problem which is linked to edu-cation welfare and property issues

Concerned about the impact on pro-ductivity and fiscal stability of the fall-ing birth rate the government has spent billions of dollars to fund free nurseries and the provision of public day care services. South Korean parents have the right to one year of subsidised childcare leave and access to government-trained babysitters. The Seoul city government last year introduced cash incentives of Won100 000 ($82) per child birth. Yet the number of babies being born has continued to fall plunging 8.7 per cent last year compared with 2017 fol-lowing declines of 11.9 per cent and 7.3 percentinthepasttwoyears.

Many Koreans are reluctant to have more than one child because of the cost of private tuition — considered essential in the education-obsessed country. This consumes a tenth of household income according to government data. About three quarters of high school students receive private tuition and a similar portion of those go on to university.

Policymakers are also concerned about the falling potential growth rate due to ageing with the country now containing more economically active people aged over 60 than in their twen-ties.

“One child seems enough for me given the expected cost. The govern-ment incentives and subsidies do not helpmuch ” said Lee Jung-woo a newly-wed 36-year-old resident of Seoul who is expecting a baby in November.

Despite growing concerns about the looming labour shortages South Korea maintains a strict immigration policy not allowing foreign workers to migrate with their families or apply for South Korean citizenship in most cases.

英文来源：《金融时报》