值域秒杀技巧（小源46属性关联的双极容度多属性决策）

小君 2023-08-30 07:02:15 585

值域秒杀技巧（小源46属性关联的双极容度多属性决策）Dear youShare interest spread happiness increase knowledge and leave beautiful.今天小编给大家带来期刊论文《属性关联的双极容度多属性决策 VIKOR方法》决策步骤理论基础2，欢迎您的用心访问！本期推文阅读时长大约6分钟，请您耐心阅读。

值域秒杀技巧（小源46属性关联的双极容度多属性决策）(1)

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这里是LearningYard学苑！

今天小编给大家带来期刊论文《属性关联的双极容度多属性决策 VIKOR方法》决策步骤理论基础2，

欢迎您的用心访问！

本期推文阅读时长大约6分钟，请您耐心阅读。

Share interest spread happiness increase knowledge and leave beautiful.

Dear you

This is the LearningYard Academy!

Today the editor brings you the theoretical basis of decision steps in the journal paper "Attribute Association Bipolar Capacity Multi-attribute Decision VIKOR Method" 2

Welcome your visit!

This tweet usually takes about 6 minutes to read. Please be patient and read.

在上一期中我们解读了决策步骤中构建决策矩阵、归一化处理评价矩阵和计算相对距离差的矩阵，接下来让我们继续决策步骤的分析和学习吧！

In the last issue we interpreted the decision matrix in the decision-making step the normalization processing evaluation matrix and the matrix for calculating the relative distance difference so let's continue the analysis and learning of the decision-making step!

在论文第三个步骤中，文章考虑到仅仅计算方案与负理想解的距离得到最佳折中解（依据VIKOR多属性决策方法），会忽略了方案与正理想解的距离，造成信息的缺失，所以本文提出新的VIKOR多属性决策方法，设置了方案与正理想解和负理想解的相对距离差公式，并基于前景理论计算前景效用决策矩阵。今天我们就开始详细解读这个概念。

In the third step of the paper considering that only calculating the distance between the scheme and the negative ideal solution to obtain the best compromise solution (according to the VIKOR multi-attribute decision-making method) will ignore the distance between the scheme and the positive ideal solution resulting in the lack of information so this paper proposes a new VIKOR multi-attribute decision-making method sets the relative distance difference formula between the scheme and the positive ideal solution and the negative ideal solution and calculates the Prospect utility decision matrix based on the prospect theory. Today we will begin to explain this concept in detail.

值域秒杀技巧（小源46属性关联的双极容度多属性决策）(2)

Part.1

前景理论的提出

前景理论是由丹尼尔·卡内曼和阿莫斯·特沃斯基教授提出，也叫展望理论，它将心理学研究应用在经济学中，并在不确定情况下的人为判断和决策方面作出了突出贡献。长期以来，我们常常沿用理性人假设，但是，前景理论从实证研究出发，从人的心理特质、行为特征揭示了影响选择行为的非理性心理因素。

Prospect theory also known as prospect theory proposed by professors Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky applies psychological research to economics and makes outstanding contributions to human judgment and decision-making in uncertainty. For a long time we have often followed the rational person hypothesis but prospect theory starts from empirical research and reveals irrational psychological factors affecting the choice behavior from the psychological characteristics and behavioral characteristics of people.

2002年，诺贝尔经济学奖获得者——美国普林斯顿大学教授丹尼尔·卡内曼提出：前景理论，是心理学与经济学的美妙融合！

In 2002 Daniel Kahneman a Nobel laureate in economics - professor at Princeton University in the United states proposed that prospect theory is a wonderful integration of psychology and economics!

Part.2

前景理论原理

确定效应：在确定的收益和“赌一把”之间，多数人会选择确定的好处。即人们对确定结果过度加权，相对于仅仅是可能的结果。
反射效应：在确定的损失和“赌一把”之间，做一个抉择，多数人会选择“赌一把”。
损失规避：白捡的100元所带来的快乐，难以抵消丢失100元所带来的痛苦。
迷恋小概率事件：很多人都买过，虽然赢钱可能微乎其微，你的钱99.99%的可能支持福利事业和体育事业了，可还是有人心存侥幸搏小概率事件。
参照依赖：多数人对得失的判断往往根据参照点决定。举例来说，在“其他人一年挣6万元你年收入7万元”和“其他人年收入为9万元你一年收入8万”的选择题中，大部分人会选择前者。

Deterministic effect: Between a definite payoff and a "gamble" most people choose a definite benefit. That is people overweight the determination of outcomes as opposed to only possible outcomes.
Reflex effect: Make a choice between a definite loss and a "gamble" and most people will choose to "gamble".
Loss avoidance: The happiness brought by the 100 yuan picked up in vain is difficult to offset the pain caused by the loss of 100 yuan.
Obsessed with small probability events: Many people have bought lottery tickets although the winning money may be minimal and your money is 99.99% likely to support welfare and sports but there are still people who have a small probability of luck.
Reference dependence: Most people's judgments about gains and losses are often based on reference points. For example in the multiple-choice questions "Other people earn 60 000 yuan a year and you earn 70 000 yuan a year" and "Other people earn 90 000 yuan a year and you earn 80 000 yuan a year" most people will choose the former.

确定效应案例说明

案例1：让我们来做这样一个实验。Ａ.你一定能赚30000元。Ｂ.你有80%可能赚40000元，20%可能性什么也得不到。你会选择哪一个呢？实验结果是，大部分人都选择Ａ。

传统经济学中的“理性人”这时会跳出来批判：选择Ａ是错的，因为4000×80%=32000，期望值要大于30000。

这个实验结果说明：大多数人处于收益状态时，往往小心翼翼、厌恶风险、喜欢见好就收，害怕失去已有的利润。卡尼曼和特沃斯基称为“确定效应”，即处于收益状态时，大部分人都是风险厌恶者。

Determine the effect case description

Case 1: Let's do such an experiment. A. You can definitely earn 30 000 yuan. B. You have an 80% chance of making $40 000 and a 20% chance of getting nothing. Which one would you choose? As a result most people chose A.

The "rational people" in traditional economics will jump out at this time to criticize: it is wrong to choose A because 4000×80% = 32000 and the expected value is greater than 30000.

The results of this experiment show that when most people are in a state of return they tend to be cautious risk averse like to accept when they see good and are afraid of losing their existing profits. Kahneman and Tversky call this the "certainty effect " the fact that when in a state of return most people are risk-averse.

反射效应案例说明

案例2：让我们来做这样一个实验。Ａ.你一定会赔30000元。Ｂ.你有80%可能赔40000元，20%可能不赔钱。你会选择哪一个呢？实验结果是，只有少数人情愿“花钱消灾”选择Ａ，大部分人愿意和命运搏一搏，选择Ｂ。

传统经济学中的“理性人”会跳出来说，两害相权取其轻，所以选Ｂ是错的，因为(-40000)×80%=-32000，风险要大于-30000元。

现实是，多数人处于亏损状态时，会极不甘心，宁愿承受更大的风险来赌一把。也就是说，处于损失状态时，大多数人变得甘冒风险。卡尼曼和特沃斯基称为“反射效应”。反射效应表明，积极前景中的风险规避倾向伴随着消极前景中的风险寻求倾向。

Case study of reflection effect

Case 2: Let's do such an experiment. A. You will definitely lose 30 000 yuan. B. You may lose 40 000 yuan 80% and 20% may not lose money. Which one would you choose? The result of the experiment is that only a few people are willing to "spend money to eliminate disasters" and choose A and most people are willing to fight fate and choose B.

The "rational person" in traditional economics will jump out and say that the lesser of two evils so it is wrong to choose B because (-40000)×80%=-32000 the risk is greater than -30000 yuan.

The reality is that when most people are losing money they are extremely unwilling and would rather take greater risks to gamble. That is when in a state of loss most people become willing to take risks. Kahneman and Tversky call it the "reflection effect." The reflex effect shows that the risk-averse tendency in a positive outlook is accompanied by a risk-seeking propensity in a negative outlook.

参照依赖案例说明

案例5：假设你面对这样一个选择：在商品和服务价格相同的情况下，你有两种选择：Ａ.其他同事一年挣6万元的情况下，你的年收入7万元。Ｂ.其他同事年收入为9万元的情况下，你一年有8万元进账。

实验结果是：大部分人选择了前者。

事实上，我们拼命赚钱的动力，多是来自同侪间的嫉妒和攀比。这就是同侪悖论（在相同的条件下，人们总是喜欢把得与失、成功与失败的标准定格在和其它参照物的比较之下，从而做出不同的心理反应和行为反应）。研究认为：人们在做决策时，并不是计算一个物品的真正价值，而是用某种比较容易评价的参照物来判断。

Refer to the dependency case description

Case 5: Suppose you are faced with a choice: you have two choices when the prices of goods and services are the same: A. When other colleagues earn 60 000 yuan a year your annual income is 70 000 yuan. B. When other colleagues earn 90 000 yuan a year you have 80 000 yuan in the account a year.

The result of the experiment is that most people choose the former.

In fact our motivation to make money comes mostly from jealousy and comparison among peers. This is the peer paradox (under the same conditions people tend to compare the criteria of gain and loss success and failure to other references so as to make different psychological and behavioral responses). Research believes that when people make decisions they do not calculate the true value of an item but use some kind of reference that is easier to evaluate.

简言之，人在面临获利时，不愿冒风险；而在面临损失时，人人都成了冒险家。损失的痛苦比获得所带来的喜悦更敏感，而损失和获利是相对于参照点而言的，改变评价事物时的参照点，就会改变对风险的态度。

In short people are reluctant to take risks when faced with profit; And in the face of loss everyone becomes an adventurer. The pain of loss is more sensitive than the joy of gain and loss and gain are relative to the reference point and changing the reference point when evaluating things changes the attitude towards risk.

First Frost

Part.3

前景理论的决策过程

前景价值函数是决策者根据实际收益或损失所产生的主观感受的价值，其公式如下：

The prospect value function is the value of the subjective feelings of the decision maker based on actual gains or losses and its formula is as follows:

值域秒杀技巧（小源46属性关联的双极容度多属性决策）(3)

其中，当x不小于0时，它是相对于参照点的收益；而当x小于0时，它是相对于参照点的损失。α和β分别代表了决策者对收益和损失的敏感程度，且α与β∈[0 1]，值越大代表决策者越敏感。θ为风险规避系数，θ>1时表明决策者相较于收益，对损失更加敏感。

where when x is not less than 0 it is the return relative to the reference point; And when x is less than 0 it is the loss relative to the reference point. α and β represent the sensitivity of the decision maker to gains and losses respectively and α and β∈ [0 1] the higher the value the more sensitive the decision maker. θ is the risk aversion factor and θ>1 indicates that the decision maker is more sensitive to loss than the gain.

在前景理论中决策者将依据参照点来衡量各个方案的收益和损失情况，参照点的选择对于决策结果会产生一定程度的影响。根据决策者的决策风格和主观态度，参考点的选择有多种选择标准，如零点、中位数、正负理想点等。

In prospect theory decision-makers will measure the gains and losses of each option based on reference points and the choice of reference points will have a certain degree of influence on the decision-making results. Depending on the decision-making style and subjective attitude of the decision maker there are various selection criteria for the selection of reference points such as zero point median positive and negative ideal point etc.

所有的参数都要事先给出，因此前景理论与后悔理论相比更加复杂。一般来说，系数的取值采用Kahneman和Tversky给出的α=β=0.88，θ=2.25。

All parameters are given in advance so the prospect theory is more complicated than the regret theory. In general the coefficients are taken as α=β=0.88 and θ=2.25 given by Kahneman and Tversky.

收益和损失的决策权重函数π具体表示为：

The decision weight function for gain and loss π expressed as:

值域秒杀技巧（小源46属性关联的双极容度多属性决策）(4)